EGF Turkey File, Mid May — Mid June 2015

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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
16 May — 17 June 2015

By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

  • The AKP loses its parliamentary majority for the first time in 13 years, leaving the party in search of a coalition partner.
  • As coalition talks begin, a nationalist AKP-MHP government appears to be the most likely scenario, though the MHP demands that Erdogan retain a ceremonial role and that investigations into AKP corruption be part of any agreement.
  • An AKP-CHP "grand" coalition is possible, and, while less likely, might be a positive arrangement that could temper each party"s more extreme positions.
  • The Kurdish HDP passes the parliamentary threshold, but the fate of the PKK peace process hangs in the balance as relations with the AKP have hit an all-time low.
  • Uncertainty over the next government have put the brakes on the Turkish Stream Pipeline Project.
  • Brussels congratulates Turkey on the elections, yet the country"s EU accession talks look unlikely to pick up speed any time soon.

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