EGF Turkey File, December — January, 2018

Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics

Mid-December 2017 — Mid-to-latter January 2018

By Ben McPherson, Incoming Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Operation Olive Branch begins, a significant new cross-border offensive into Afrin that seeks to replicate the success of Operation Euphrates Shield
  • US "border force" proposal a spark for latest operation?
  • President Trump-Erdoğan call provides little clarity
  • Moscow gives quiet permission by withdrawing forces
• Idlib clashes reveal diverging visions on post-war settlement among the players