EGF Geopolitical Trends, Issue 2, 2016

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Joining the dots and making sense of the key Geopolitical developments in Europe, Eurasia and MENA

By George Vlad NICULESCU, Head of Research, European Geopolitical Forum

Key points:

1. After five years of conflict in neighbouring Syria, Turkey faces dreadful security scenarios: the emergence of an autonomous Kurdistan, and a regional conflict with Russia (and possibly Iran).

2. Escalating tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran needs to be seen against the backdrop of the changing regional order in the Middle East, where US leadership was not what it once was.

3. The questionable macro-security environment of the Euro-Atlantic area could be restored by comprehensive strategic dialogue inclusive of Russia and the West, and foreseeing the emergence of a revamped security architecture.

4. The political deadlock inside Ukraine has led to the stalemating of both the Minsk 2 peace process on the one hand, and Kyiv"s pro-European reforms on the other, with Ukraine"s oligarchs likely to have the last laugh.

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